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Climate Change and Meteorology

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ArticleOpen Access http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/ccm.2026.06.003

Developing Localized Climate-health Thresholds for a Dengue Early-warning Systems in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

Desalegn Tarekegn*, Yosef Tesfaye, Tarekegn Abera

Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, Addis Ababa 1000, Ethiopia.

*Corresponding author: Desalegn Tarekegn

Published: June 20, 2026

Abstract

Background: In Ethiopia, public health management remains largely reactive, constrained by a lack of an integrated early-warning systems and predictive climate-health tools tailored to local urban microclimates. Methods: Temporal patterns and lagged effects of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity were examined using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, normalization of correlation, weighted combination correlation, Combined Climate-Health Risk Index (CHRIlag), time-lag regression, threshold derivation, and ENSO teleconnection analysis. Results: Rainfall exhibited both linear (Pearson) and non-linear (Spearman) relationships with dengue transmission, with the strongest positive correlations observed at a 6-month lag (ρ = 0.76 and ρ = 0.77, respectively). Mean temperature showed a delayed positive influence, peaking at a 5-month lag in both Pearson (ρ = 0.68) and Spearman (ρ = 0.95) analyses. Relative humidity demonstrated an inverse relationship with dengue incidence, with the strongest negative correlations observed at lag 0 in the Pearson analysis (ρ = -0.70) and at lag 5 months in the Spearman analysis (ρ = -0.60). Based on the weighted CHRI, rainfall and mean temperature each contributed 40% to dengue transmission risk, while relative humidity contributed 20%. Conclusion: Understanding climate drivers of dengue transmission is critical for identifying outbreak risks and strengthening an early-warning systems. Improved climate forecasting can support timely, proactive interventions and enhance dengue preparedness in vulnerable areas.

Keyword

Dengue; climate variability; ENSO; Seasonal Transmission; Climate-Health Threshold; Lag Time; Dire Dawa

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Copyright

© 2026 by the author(s).
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How to cite this paper

Developing Localized Climate-health Thresholds for a Dengue Early-warning Systems in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

How to cite this paper: Desalegn Tarekegn, Yosef Tesfaye, Tarekegn Abera. (2026). Developing Localized Climate-health Thresholds for a Dengue Early-warning Systems in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. Climate Change and Meteorology3(1), 46-60.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/ccm.2026.06.003