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ArticleOpen Access http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/sa.2026.03.005

Evaluating India’s Agricultural Budget Through Micro-level Simulation: Evidence from the AgriBudget-AI Policy and Profit Model

Jyotsna Thakur1, Shyamsundar Subramani1, Arshad Bhat2,*

1Amity School of Engineering and Technology, Amity University Mumbai, Maharashtra 410206, India.

2Amity Institute of Liberal Arts, Amity University Mumbai, Maharashtra 410206, India.

*Corresponding author: Arshad Bhat

Published: March 31, 2026

Abstract

The agricultural public expenditure of India has significantly increased, but the effects have not reached the farmers to a level that is equitable, considering that the input subsidies (7075) predominate over growth-oriented investments. In this paper, the author proposes AgriBudget AI, which is an integrated simulation model that connects the budget levers, such as fertiliser subsidies, MSP changes, and transition grants, to the farm outcomes. The combination includes microe-conomic profit models, policy transmission equations, AI-based crop recommendation and risk prediction, and long-term simulations of cash flow using curated data. The framework allows for pre-evaluating budget trade-offs in major crops. With a 2026 outlook (15 percent increase in subsidies, 5 percent in MSP, and even more incentives on pulses/soybean), the level of profit is expected to increase significantly: wheat (17.8 percent), rice (20.0 percent), cotton (10.8 percent), soybean (18.1 percent), and pulses (15.5 percent). Under high-subsidy scenarios, AI outputs will give higher priority to the high-subsidised pulses, whereas the risk of distress is reduced by 2231. These findings emphasize the role of specific MSP and transition assistance as a means of profitability and diversification. AgriBudget AI reveals the usefulness of fiscal policy-agricultural results. The improvements in the future will involve empirical calibration with long-term data, the additional incorporation of environmental metrics, and the introduction of behavioural dynamics to design more comprehensive agricultural policies.

Keyword

Budget; expenditure; revenue; simulation; AI; agriculture

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How to cite this paper

Evaluating India’s Agricultural Budget Through Micro-level Simulation: Evidence from the AgriBudget-AI Policy and Profit Model

How to cite this paper: Jyotsna Thakur, Shyamsundar Subramani, Arshad Bhat. (2026) Evaluating India’s Agricultural Budget Through Micro-level Simulation: Evidence from the AgriBudget-AI Policy and Profit ModelScientific Access2(1), 35-48.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/sa.2026.03.005