H. Abdulhamid1,*, Musa A. Aliyu2, A. Musa2
1Department of Agricultural Education, School of Vocational Education, Umar Suleiman College of Education, Gashu'a 631101, Yobe State, Nigeria.
2Department of Economics Education, School of Art and Social Science, Umar Suleiman College of Education, Gashu'a 631101, Yobe State, Nigeria.
*Corresponding author: H. Abdulhamid
Abstract
Due to their low cost and high nutritional content, eggs are a typical food item that helps middle-class and low-income households satisfy their nutritional needs. In this way, changes in egg pricing will mostly impact middle-class and lower-class households. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to determine the trends in egg pricing in Yobe State, Nigeria, and forecast future egg prices in the study area. The available monthly price per egg from January 2016 to January 2023 was accessed from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). ARIMA model (Box-Jenkins method) and descriptive statistics were used to analyse the data. Stata software and Microsoft Excel were utilized for the analysis. The data’s stationarity was tested using the Graph and Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP). Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and a graph were used to assess the model’s forecasting accuracy. From January 2016 to December 2021, the price patterns for eggs varied, with the lowest price occurring in January 2016 and the highest price being in June 2020. From January 2022 until the investigation’s conclusion, the cost of the eggs in the study area continuously went up. However, with respect to egg prices prediction, the data was not stationary at the level, but it became stationary after the first order difference. Following the estimation of the ARIMA models, ARIMA (1.10) was chosen as the optimal model. Its suitability for predicting egg prices was shown by diagnostic tests (residual plot, Portmanteau test, and Inevitability test). The expected price of eggs would keep rising during the predicted period. Both the graph and the MAPE proved that the forecast was highly accurate. In order to increase supply and, eventually, cut the prices of eggs in the study area, the government should encourage egg imports by eliminating taxes and levies.
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