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Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science

ISSN Online: 2576-0548 ISSN Print: 2576-0556 CODEN: JHASAY
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ArticleOpen Access http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/jhass.2026.01.002

Impact of Inflation on the Price of Gold Through the Years in India

Dwija Ghande1, Arshad Bhat2,*

1School of Economics, SVKM's Narsee Monjee Institute of Management Studies, Mumbai 400056, Maharashtra, India.

2Amity Institute of Liberal Arts, Amity University Mumbai, Maharashtra 410206, India.

*Corresponding author: Arshad Bhat

Published: January 16,2026

Abstract

In Indian culture, gold continues to have a great deal of importance over the years and is now viewed as one of the most valuable, luxurious, and prestigious assets with which one can invest. This research used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with annual data from 2000 to 2023 to determine the long-term relationship between inflation and the price of gold in India. It investigated to what extent macroeconomic indicators (inflation), GDP per capita (PPF), fluctuations in PPF returns, and fluctuations in the value of the rupee have all had an impact on the price of gold in India. The findings support a positive correlation between gold prices and inflation due to the statistically significant results produced by this investigation to support the use of gold as an inflationary hedge. Additionally, these results show the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the price of gold and that when the value of the rupee depreciates and when the PPF return is low, this results in an increase in gold price. This research provides insight into the dual function that gold serves in India as an economic and social security during periods of heightened uncertainty due to macroeconomic trends. Consequently, these findings can provide insight for those seeking to enhance their portfolios during inflation, as well as those responsible for regulating the gold markets.

Keywords

Gold Prices; ARDL Model; Exchange Rate; Public Provident Fund; Inflation Hedge

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How to cite this paper

Impact of Inflation on the Price of Gold Through the Years in India

How to cite this paper: Dwija Ghande, Arshad Bhat. (2026) Impact of Inflation on the Price of Gold Through the Years in India. Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science10(1), 5-17.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/jhass.2026.01.002