Abstract
The management of shared freshwater resources in Africa and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions, encompassing vital basins like the Nile, Euphrates-Tigris, and Jordan, faces a confluence of escalating challenges that are funda-mentally reshaping their hydro-political landscapes. This paper argues that traditional water scarcity is now compounded by dynamic, emerging threats: accelerating climate change impacts, unilateral hydrological infrastructure projects, and the weaponization of water in conflict zones. This analysis, utilizing the Hydro-Hegemony and Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus frameworks, identifies and characterizes these critical challenges. Climate change acts as a conflict multiplier, intensifying competition and rendering outdated water-sharing agreements obsolete. Simultaneously, upstream states’ pursuit of large-scale projects, such as Ethiopia’s GERD or Turkey’s GAP, solidifies their hydro-hegemonic control, bypassing the vague principle of “equitable utilization” and escalating regional tensions. Furthermore, the deliberate targeting of water infrastructure in conflict zones, particularly across MENA, is a destructive emerging threat with dire humanitarian and long-term security implications. The overarching problem is the persistent institutional and governance gap: the failure to translate hydrological interdependence into enforceable, equitable basin-wide agreements. Using descriptive methodology, the paper proposes policy recommendations rooted in the Environmental Peacebuilding framework, including: mandatory data sharing, the negotiation of binding legal frameworks with clear operational rules, and mechanisms to address power asymmetry through compensatory benefits. Resolving these disputes requires a shift toward integrated, science-based, and inclusive governance to ensure regional stability and water security.
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