SIR Model of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics and Control Strategies

Keyword

COVID-19, R0, Control Parameters, Libya Data, DFE, SIR Model, Infectious Diseases, Epidemiology, Birth Rate, Death Rate, Disease Dynamics

References

[1] C. Huang, Y. Wang, X. Li, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet, 395 (10223), (2019), 497-506, http:// dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5(published correction appears in lancet. 30 January 2020).

[2] World health organization (WHO), novel Coronavirus-China, 2020,

http:// www.who.int/csr/dom/12- January-2020-novel- coro-navirus-china/en /. (accessed 09 May 2020).

[3] H.Y. Geng, W.J. Tan. A novel human coronavirus: middle east respiratory syndrome human coronavirus, sci. China life sci., 56 (8) (2013) 683-687, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11427-013-4519-8.

[4] H. Nishiura. Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009), BioMed Engonline, 10 (2009), 15, http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1475-925x-10-15. 

[5] S.C.M Soares, K. M.R. dos santos, F.C.G. de Morais Fernandes, I.R. Barbosa, D.L.B. de souza, Testicular cancer mortality in Brazil: trends and prediction 2030. BMC Urol., 19 (1), (2019) 59, http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12894-019-0487-z.

[6] B. Zahmatkesh, A. Keramat, M. Alavi, A. Khosravi, A. Kousha, A. G. Motlagh, R. Chaman. Breast cancer trend in Iran from 2000 to 2009 and prediction till 2020 using a trend analysis method. Asian Pac.J.cancer prev., 17(3) (2000), 1493-1498, http://dx.doi.org-10.7314-apjcp.2016.17.3.1493.

[7] Kermack, W. O. and A. G. McKendrick. (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society London Ser. A, (Vol.115, pp. 700-721).

[8] Kermack, W. O. and A. G. McKendrick. (1932). Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Part II, Proceedings of the Royal Society London Ser. A (Vol.138, pp. 55-83).

[9] World Health Organization, https://covid19.who.int/region/emro/country/ly (accessed 05 August 2023).

[10] National Centre for Disease Control Libya. (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023). https://ncdc.org.ly (accessed 09 July 2023).

[11] Keeling, Matt J., and Pejman Rohani. Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton University Press, (2008), page 27. https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=_bZsAXAS2Ss. 

[12] Rahul Saxena and Mahipal Jadeja and Vikrant Bhateja. (2022). Exploring Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model for COVID-19 Investigation Springer Briefs, Singapore.

[13] Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J.A.P., and Metz, J.A. (1990). On the Definition and the Computation of the Basic Reproduction Ratio RO in Models for Infectious-Diseases in Heterogeneous Populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 28, 365-382.

https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00178324.

[14] Van den driessche, P. and Watmough, J. (2002). Further Notes on the Basic Reproduction Number. In: Brauer, F., van den Driessche, P. and Wu, J., Eds., Mathematical Epidemiology, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 159-178. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78911-6_6.

[15] Powell DR, Fair J, LeClaire RJ, and Moore LM, et al. Sensitivity analysis of an infectious disease model. In: Boston M, editor. Proceedings of the international system dynamics conference; 2005.

[16] Andres David Ba´ Ez-Sa´ Nchez, Nara Bobko. (2020). On Equilibria Stability in an Epidemiological SIR Model with Recovery-dependent Infection Rate, Tendˆencias em Matem´ atica Aplicada e Computacional, 21, N. 3 pp. 409-424.

Copyright

© 2023 by the author(s).
This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (CC BY-NC-ND) license, which permits non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not modified or adapted.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/